Toronto Raptors 26-27’ regular season primer
Last season record: 46-36
Playoff record: 3-4 (lost in first round to Cavs)
Off Rtg: 115.9 (15th)
Def Rtg: 113.0 (3rd)
Net Rtg: +2.9 (11th)
Who’s out: Ingram, Gradey, Sandro (FA-LAL), Mogbo (declined TO)
Who’s in: Kawhi, Kyla Anderson (FA)
Projected team, starting lineup in bold
PG: Quickley, Shead
SG: RJ Barrett, Walter, Martin
SF: Kawhi
PF: Barnes, Graves, Battle, Anderson
C: Poetl, CMB
Takeaways from last season:
- Barnes emergence in playoffs
- CMB ascendence
- Raptors pressure defense
- Stagnant & predictable offense
- Lack of shooting (finished 21st in 3FG%, 26th 3FGM)
- Lack of downhill driving (finished 27th in ‘blow-by’ %)
- Poetl contract / injury issues
Raptors fans can finally exhale (kind of), the trade has gone through: Ingram, Gradey 2 first round picks, a swap and 2 second rounders are out and Kawhi is back in Toronto. From the absolutely scorched earth findings from WLR&K Clippers report, it does seem like the Raptors paid a high price for what amounted to damaged goods with Kawhi. There was no way he could stay in LA with the amount of toxicity he and his uncle created in the organization and the punitive damage they caused (5 first rounders lost, etc) and Toronto has a good team so they seemed to now have all the leverage right? Well, LA likely rebutted by saying their season and likely the next 5 are all a loss and they’ll play Kawhi, let him play out his contract to a chorus of boos and move on, I don’t think this was super likely but hell hath no fury like a billionaire scorned. The fact is Kawhi is a Raptor and this upcoming season is the most unpredictable and interesting since the last time Kawhi was a Raptor.
As an almost life-long Toronto resident, a returning Kawhi is an odd proposition in terms of the fan emotional experience. On the one hand, his stats are still devastatingly good and he can still consistently get to his spots any time he wants and (not as often) bring out super human games the likes of which only the top of the top HOF players could conjure. His defense again, is not what is once was, but for a 6 minute stretch in the fourth quarter, I have no doubt he will become prime Kawhi again and be (one of 😊) Toronto’s wing stopper. It is truly going to be a joy to watch Shead, RJ Barrett, Kawhi, Scottie & CMB swallop up offenses with their otherworldly length, intensity and athleticism. This team has all the makings of another top-5 defense and with Kawhi replacing the Dick/BI minutes, along with CMB & Scotties ascendence, should see a meaningful offensive increase in a team that finish middle of the pack last season.
It will be once again so fun to have a player that can get his shot anytime he wants and a damn good shot at that, finishing 10th in CPOY voting last season, top-15 in clutch PPG, and top-10 in clutch 3FG% at .42%. With Brandon Ingram it felt like a mirage, a really good regular season player but something felt nebulas about the idea this would translate into high level (playoff) winning and the answer was a resounding no. With Kawhi, he is not the game wrecker, all encompassing game dominator he once was during the 2019 playoffs but the hope is with Scottie seemingly accepting & leaning into his strengths on offense that this can be a duo that can compete for a ECF birth.
But…… it’s a strange feeling, this is a player that yes gave Toronto its one and only NBA championship and memories to last a lifetime, but he spurned the team and moved to LA with this trade proving in hindsight, was the wrong move. Also with the reports that Uncle Dennis was asking for ownership stake and everything else under the moon puts a bitter taste in my mouth. Do I want to rout for a player with such seemingly iffy morals? I tend no to but at the end of the day this is pennies compared to athletes who have done actually immoral things vs subjectively immoral in this case.
In the aggregate, ofcourse we are happy, no matter what you say, even at this stage of his career I would put Kawhi as a tier 2 player meaning at his absolute peak I don’t think he can compete with the Wembys, Lukas, Shais, Jokic’s, Brunsons of the world, but anyone else and this guy can trade buckets no problem. Which brings us to this season…
Defensively, this team should pick up right where it left off last season, being one of the best pressure teams in the NBA. Toronto regularly had teams shooting late in the shot clock and used their length & athleticism to pressure teams as often as possible in the half court. Jamal Shead and Quickley are great point of attack defenders, RJ/Scottie/Kawhi will be great as wings who can easily switch to bigger 4s and clear up any gaps that could be caused in switches. I think Poeltl just had a terrible season and should rebound at least health-wise and give a solid 28 minute a night. CMB should take the other 20 + minutes at the forward position and hopefully worked this off-season on a semi reliable corner three point shot.
Offensively will be more of a challenge. Toronto cannot use the non-Kawhi offense from 18-19 season. That team had multiple offensive players that were veterans and comfortable in their roles. Lowry, Siakim, FVV, Ibaka, Gasol could all keep an offense flowing and new exactly where their and most importantly each others preferred shots were. When Kawhi sat, the team turned into a facsimile of the 2014 Spurs, moving the ball and not caring who scored which is why they went 17-5 without Kawhi that season.
Kawhi can still get his and will this season for sure but Darko’s staff will likely be cautious with his GP and I expect the number to land somewhere between 55-65 games depending on how much Kawhi cares about all-NBA selections. That means anywhere from 17-27 games that Toronto will be without their primary scorer. Assuming good health, Toronto has more than enough options to still be a top-5 defense and mid-level offense which will keep them atleast .500 in those games, if not better.
The other thing to note is how good the East will be this season. I count 6 locks to make the playoffs this year: Detroit, Boston, NY, Philly, Toronto, Cleveland and 5 others teams that I consider themselves playoff teams (if not contenders): Miami, Atlanta, Orlando, Indiana & Charlotte. That means 11 teams going into this season thinking they are playoff teams so 3 will go home very unhappy this season but the point is there will be very few Brooklyn/Milwaukee games to be had this season which would be considered easy wins and everything else will be damn tough.
My player to watch this season will be Ja’kobe Walter. In his first 2 seasons he’s shot .385% 3FG% on 6.6 attempts per 36 minutes. With Kawhi, Scottie, RJ & IQ that is 4 players that need the ball in their hands to be effective so perimeter spot up shooting will be a premium, I hope Walter spent every day this season getting 1,000 3’s up per day because he’s going to have plenty of them this season and if his shooting percentage is real in a meaningful way that means he can unlock spacing for this team that is priceless. As mentioned earlier, Toronto struggles with blow-by’s so having three high end shooters consistently on the floor in IQ, Kawhi and hopefully Ja’Kobe would mean great things for this upcoming season. If Ja’Kobe can become a 25 minute per night guy and shoot .39% or better from 3 on big time attempts, I think that’s the barometer for if Toronto is a fringe contender or legitimate finals threat.
Hopes are high this season and for good reason, there will be plenty of time to digest the moral ambiguity of cheering for Kawhi but I really do look forward to seeing if Scottie can continue to shove himself into the top-15 conversation and if CMB can force Darko to make him a starter among many other stories this season.
Lets. Go. Raps!
