Miami is in trouble
Current record 2-4
-3.2 point differential
Giannis so far has been as advertised. He’s played in every game averaging a stout 28/12/6 on .586 FG%. Other good news is Pelle Larsson could make his extension seem reasonable; Davion Mitchell looks shot out of a cannon and Portis at age 31 still appears to be a great 1st big off the bench.
That’s it, that’s the good news.
The bad news starts with Bam, he looks completely lost with Giannis on the floor. This was likely foreseeable by the coaching staff, and this is not a panic situation… yet. This is giving 2016 New Orleans Pelicans vibes when they zagged hard and paired Cousins with Anthony Davis. The fit was questionable and it took time for them to learn how to play as 2 ball dominant bigs in the guard-wing heavy NBA at the time. This seems similar and Bam is a savvy enough player to learn how to become more effective offensively, it will take time for 2 players with overlapping skill sets. Couple that with the fact it’s not exactly easy to play with Giannis, he’s a freight train spraying out bullet passes and you better be ready to shoot and not much more.
More bad news is Wiggins continued regression (10.8 ppg down from 15.4 last year and 18 the year before) and lack of shooting (Hardaway 24% & Klay before his 25 point / 7 3FGM game was 8 ppg on 32% 3FG shooting).
Denver is in trouble
Current record 3-2
-1.20 point differential
Trevon Brazile is a problem! A 5 year college player with career averages of 9 & 6 and peaks of 13 ppg & 7 rpg does not scream “franchise saviour”, but in his brief NBA career he has shown glimpses of being Aaron Gordon 2.0. He’s exactly the kind of player Denver needs, a uber athletic, high motor, low usage player that creates easy scoring chances.
Denver’s offense has become a slog. Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, these players no longer strike fear in their opponents’ eyes. The playbook is clear: Try and get the ball out of Jokics hands and play tough defense on anyone else, there is no fear anyone other than Jokic can break down their defense, noted by Denver ranking 26th in the NBA in FGA: They can’t even get into offensive sets with Jokic which eats up the shot clock and creates no flow. Just watch any game when Jokic sits and you will see a team with no real ability to create positive scoring chances and the inevitable conclusion is Murray or Gordan taking a heavily contested 15-footer.
Denvers current only saving grace is if Cam Johnson returns and becomes Porter 2.0 and if Brazile can credibly play 25mpg in the playoffs. If those 2 things emerge along with Gordons lower body staying intact, Jokic could sneak a WCF appearance into this years team.
The last troubling thing is Jokic used to be a super nova on his own, the last 3 seasons Denvers offensive rating was 127 when he was on the floor, this season its down to 115 which is even more scary since he’s still a +15 when on the floor meaning Denver has a offensive rating of 100 without him which would rank dead last in the NBA.
Warriors are in trouble
Current record 4-3
Point differential +2.8
At first glance their record and point differential would indicate a pretty good season! But Steph has already missed games and to me he’s now gone from a player I used to marvel at to now a player in his late-30’s that cannot keep up the pace required to do what he does. In his prime, Steph like Rip Hamilton or Reggie Miller before him could run circles all day but in his late 30s, these sets look arduous and painful and an injury waiting to happen. I love Steph, he’s probably the unlikeliest all-time top-15 player ever but without true help, this is fools gold.
Yaxel is good. Like damn good. Like ROTY in a STACKED rookie class good. Like 22/7/4 on good shooting good! Like could save Steph’s post prime good? Maybe! To me this season is a throw away, get Steph & Jimmy healthy for one last run next season with another high draft prospect + 2nd year Yaxel and the corpse of Draymond Green.
Can I just say, Draymond has not averaged >8 RPG since the 2016-17 season! He’s a career 6.8 RPG player! (hands in the air exacerbated). This year he’s averaging a stout 3 PPG / 5.2 RPG / 7.2 APG on .286 3FG%. Whatever.
These Rookies are as advertised!
I cannot imagine how hard it is to be an NBA scout. Look at the below measurements:
Cameron Boozer – 6’10” 250 LBS
- Last year of college: 23 & 10
Marvin Bagley III – 6’10” 235 LBS
- Last year of college: 21 & 11
Derrick Williams – 6’8” 240 LBS
- Last year of college: 20 & 8
Two of these players (for their draft position) sucked and the other will likely be a multiple time all-NBA player. I know I know, theres a lot more than base measurements (clearly) but the idea that players can have very similar physiques and by similar physiques I mean the 0.01% percentile of human beings yet their skillsets are not even close. Take a look at their college stats and they dominated in similar ways statistically. Anyways, Cam Boozer is a beast.
In the history of the NBA, only 15 times has a rookie average > 20 FGA per game and Darius Acuff, 6 games into his NBA career, is sitting pretty at #4 ahead of names like George Mikan, Oscar Robertson, Kareem, Elgin, Rick Barry & the B-King broiler! Keep it up you crazy bastard.
And Sacramento, please trade Sabonis, he doesn’t deserve to watch a rookie PG jack up 24 shots per game shooting 40% from the field. Acuff is the franchise centrepiece without a doubt, but we’ve all been on that team where the guy thinks he’s God, it’s not fun.
Is Caleb Wilson T-Mac meets Paul George, for real? What separates him from other players that have drawn this comparison is his shooting ability and his handles. Most players can’t even begin to understand P&R subtleties and how to navigate 15-20 ball screens per game. Wilson appears to have no issues handling these.
AJ looks great & Peterson will be fine.
Will Luka average 35+ PPG?
He’s on the right track, I’ll give him that. 6 games in and he’s averaging 37.7 PPG on 67.3% true shooting! The percentages will eventually come down but other than that, there is no reason 35+ would be out of Luka’s range. He’s in great shape, his team is built to maximize his skill set and to give him the ball and let him do whatever he wants. Luka is in his prime and players at his offensive caliber can be a top-5 offensive engine all on their own, especially with the advent of helio-centric offenses thanks to James Harden.
Injuries
I’m working on a bigger piece about this but in essence, they suck and I will argue hard they are not all flukes.
