Over/unders are here! I went through the every team and below is the list of teams I think are locks this upcoming season. Let me know if you agree or disagree!
Over/unders
NYK 51.5
Last season New York went 53-29 and are bringing back essentially the same championship team from last year aside from Mitchell Robinson who, thanks to Dolans cheapness, signed with Boston this off-season. Mitchell played 60 games last season and 20 mpg so it will be a noticeable loss for NYC who replaced him with Andre Drummond and either James Wiseman or David Eubanks for 3rd string center. Coupled with that will be the off-court issues (no extensions for Hart or Towns), an improved eastern conference and the anti-tanking rules will make the East a much more formidable conference to win games in the regular season. Then there’s always ‘the disease of more’ that can affect every team that wins a championship.
Having said that, this is a team of pros, evidenced by Alvarado & Shamet both signing team friendly deals when they likely could have gotten more AAV with other teams. They also still have their starting 5 intact and all know exactly how to play to eachothers strengths. Their bench will be Alvarado, Shamet, McBride and the newly signed Drummond & Bruce Brown. That is a very good first 10 and as long as KAT can reel in his penchant for over-fouling I just don’t see a Brunson led team going worse than 52-30 this regular season.
LOCK OVER!
HOUSTON 48.5 – was previously 46.5
Their late-game playoff issues stemmed from bad coaching seen by their shocking confusion in the last 5 minutes of any close game. You would think a team with Kevin Durant in his 17th season by osmosis alone would know how to put him in the best scoring positions for end of games. Alas they did not which was their undoing. Also, I mean, its Kevin Durant, he’s eventually going to make his team miserable.
Having said all that, this team should be a regular season wins machine. With FVV coming back and a more comfortable 3rd playmaker role for Amen Thompson, this team should swallow up opponents on defense and Van Vleet will provide a stabilizing presence to get players in the correct places to orchestrate a coherent offensive system. Along with Tari Eason, Smith Jr, bearded Sheppard, a returning Steven Adams and newly signed Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic, this team has more than enough talent to sustain the regular season in a thinner Western Conference.
LOCK OVER!
DET 47.5
Detroit won 60 games last year, 60! And this years over under is 47.5 and there’s been heavy action on the under which is why their over/under dropped from 50.5 to 47.5. Looking back at last year, with tanking in full effect for like half the league, the 60 wins was likely inflated so maybe 53-55 wins was more realistic as the actual talent of the team last year, putting them at a theoretical 53-29. Detroit lost an important stabilizer in Tobias Harris & Isiah Stewart, to a lesser extent Caris Levert and replaced them with John Collins, Isiah Joe and Taurean Prince. Other than ‘Beef Stews’ fantastic at rim defense, I think that’s abit of a wash. With the improved east, I still find it hard to believe this team will not go 48-34 with a perennial all-NBA first teamer in Cade, Jalen Duren and co. IF Auser Thompson can improve as either a playmaker or jump shooter, this team will eat opponents alive defensively. The downside would be this offseason where Detroit invested $365M in Duren & Thompson who are 2 big non-shooters so they NEED to improve offensively which means J.B. Bickerstaff needs to give them more offensive responsibilities to start the season to give them a chance in the playoffs, this will likely mean growing pains which could hurt Detroit’s win total. I have faith they get on some type of roll by January and hit the over.
LOCK OVER!
TOR 46.5
I’m biased, I know, but Kawhi looks lean and just as good as ever! That along with CMB’s improvement and Scottie Barnes scratching top-15 player status means the Raptors could have 2 players in the top-15 (IF Kawhi can stay healthy) by seasons end. How is this team not supposed to go 47-35 if that’s the case?
LOCK OVER!
MINNI 46.5
Yeeash, it’s a tough look for Randle when his old coach says this team went from ‘moody to giddy’, I mean what else do you need to know about Randles effect on a team? Having said that, Randle was dependable in the regular season for Minnisota and I think a lot of his end of season and playoff regression had to do with him being in every trade discussion around the trade deadline. Divencenzo is also likely gone for the season with a torn achilles. Losing Naz Reid huts a lot as well; of the players in the NBA that shot the most 3 pointers, Naz was 3rd in weight and being a career 0.371 3FG% shooter on 4 attempts per game means he was a hell of a weapon for the Wolves. He was jettisoned for incoming Lamello Ball who was 2nd in the entire NBA last season in offensive rating behind on Jokic. Lamello is an offensive engine and will give Anthony Edwards the best point generator he’s ever had which will mean its weight in gold in terms of taking the offensive and physical burden off Edwards to create on every possession.
BUT the Wolves should be a vastly improved offensive team this year (as stated above) and with a lineup of Edwards, Ball, McDaniels, Dosunmu & Hyland (assuming last year was not a fluke), this team will generate a ton of great looks and Gobert + Finch I still think gives the Wolves a top-10 regular season defense.
LOCK OVER!
LAL 45.5
The Lakers went 53-29 last season and lost Lebron James who almost single handedly whooped Houston in the first round. Losing him hurts but the team was in purgatory between handing the keys to Luka and protecting Lebrons legacy. Now with Lebron gone and all the signings this off-season, it is Luka’s turn to show out. By all accounts he’s in the best shape in years and if Reaves can stay healthy this season, they should have a top-5 offense. The defense will be a challenge since Kessler is more of a theoretical defense anchor at this point of his career than a literal one, so this will be the side of the ball that JJ must manufacture a mid-level defense.
Having said that, this is essentially the ‘top-tier’ zone, meaning if you have a ‘top-tier’ player meaning tippy top, meaning LBJ 2008-2018, Jokic now, Wemby now, etc. than 46 wins should be a given as long as the other players on your team are breathing. Luka is 3rd in pre-season MVP odds behind Shai and Wemby, its time for Luka to put up big time this season and I think he will.
LOCK OVER!
UTAH 37.5
I mean come on, this is everyone and their mothers pick to make a massive leap from last season where they finished 22-60. So a +16 improvement is drastic but not unheard of and Utah was in their last massive tank last season (See Jaren Jackson Jr’s games played) to get another top pick (which they did!). A team fielding George, Peterson, Markkanen, Jackson Jr, Bailey, Filipowski, Sensabaugh, Collier and co. is a damn good team and the ace in the hole is that they have a top-tier coach in Will Hardy that has been itching to actually win games. I see Utah being around .500 this season and if things really click winning 48-49 games this season. They look very much like the 2022-23 Thunder that went from 24 wins to 40 wins year-over-year.
LOCK OVER!
SAC 20.5 – was previously 22.5
Oh the Kings, they atleast hit on their lottery pick as Acuff looks like a true lead guard with NBA ready play making chops already. He is still an undersized rookie PG so they’ll be growing pains which is why I think Sabonis does not get traded this season and can be a safety net for Acuffs offensive gaps. Keegan Murray should improve from an injury plagued last season. That’s kind of it… Raynaud and Cardwell (their only other bright spots) are already injured to start the season and Lavine, I mean who knows, maybe he cares this season but I had him on my fantasy last season and I promise you he did not care then.
Let me get on my soap box for a second, the ONLY reason Ben Simmons is back is because playing this year guarantees him 10 years NBA service which guarantees him an NBA pension when he retires. He’s not BACK, he’s not a PROBLEM, he’s not a hidden gem. Stop it please. I mean his jumper is still broken, with all these back problems he could have at least figured out he has to straighten his right hand on his jumper, right??? Alright I’m done.
LOCK UNDER!
Biggest swings
Bulls 29.5 was previously 25.5
Warriors 36.5 was previously 40.5 – Oh, Steph ☹
Pistons 47.5 was previously 50.5
