The evolution of Fred Van Vleet
Undrafted players do not have a large margin of error when it comes to making it in the NBA. What I really mean by that is if you are undrafted, there is a 99% chance you will never play a single game in the NBA let alone make any kind of historical impact. The best one can hope for is to have the career of someone like David Wesley (best known for being a Raptor killer) or Raja Bell (best known for clotheslining Kobe in the playoffs). Both players had good long careers, mostly on playoff teams and were valuable rotation pieces and for the most part this is the best that an undrafted player can and should hope for, not all-stars or hall of fame speeches. For example, the Basketball HOF is by most regards the pinnacle of a basketball players career, it is a stepping off point to say, this player was truly one of the greats. Now in my opinion the HOF has become something of a caricature of itself in the last 15-20 years where it seems that anyone with a decent 10+ year career gets in and the minimum requirements get less impressive with each passing year. Having said that, as I said it is still the high mark for an NBA players career and can you name 1 player in the NBA HOF that was undrafted? Keep thinking, honestly, go ahead... In the modern era, you only can name one, its Ben Wallace, no other undrafted player has made the HOF since 1980. In fact, since 1980 only 2 undrafted players had EVER averaged more than 20ppg, Mike James in his one lone season for the raptors in 2006 and Christian Woods 2020-2021 season with the Rockets. Now look, I am a proud Canadian who has lived in Toronto since 1991 and I can tell you that 2006 season was rough, no one expected the Raptors to do anything and that’s exactly what they did, the raptors finished with the third worst record in franchise history (27-55) and had to watch Mike James do his best Starbury impersonation night after night. He and Chris Bosh knew they were all we had that year and we did too. This puts into perspective what Fred VanVleet is doing this year, he’s an undrafted player putting up big time offensive stats and he impacts winning in an all-NBA caliber way. This isn’t an undrafted player playing on a bad team and hoping to carve out an NBA career, he’s an all-star caliber player and a big-time winner.
FVV finished the 2021-2022 regular season averaging 20.3 PPG / 6.7 APG / 4.4 RPG / 1.7 SPG on .377% shooting from 3 on 9.9 attempts per game. He made his first all-star team and if it wasn’t for a few nagging injuries, we’d likely be talking about him for an all-NBA spot instead of fellow Raptor Pascal Siakam who ended up nabbing a well-deserved All-NBA 3rd team selection. Only 3 other players this season in the NBA averaged at least 20/6/4/1.5, Nikola Jokic, Dejounte Murray and LaMelo Ball. If you take out the steals, he was 1 of 12 players to average at least 20/6/4 and the names on that list is a who’s who of today’s NBA, names like Jokic, Durant, Curry, Lebron and Luka. You know the difference between Fred and all those players? They were all drafted and aside from Jokic and Dejounte, all the other players were lottery picks AKA blue chippers. That’s the point, Fred shouldn’t be here, his moniker of “bet on yourself” is very catchy and plays well for fans but as cliché as it is, it’s so true of the player he is. His NBA contracts read like this: 2yrs/$2M, 2yrs/$18M, 4yrs/$84M. What those numbers tell you is that this is a person that does not settle, he doesn’t see a big contract for multiple years as a chance to relax and wait for the next one, he see’s it as a reminder to not stop working and to continue to put in the work. That’s why I hope FVV never leaves the Raptors, players like him don’t stop, always keep fighting and never give up. It’s no wonder when FVV was going through one of the worst slumps of his career during the 2019 NBA playoffs, it didn’t shake his confidence, he just kept going and eventually exploded in the NBA Finals averaging 14 PPG on .44% FG and .40% 3FG. He won’t stop fighting and that’s exactly the kind of players you need for extended playoff runs. It’s the same thing that’s kept Tom Brady playing into age 45, because as a 6th round pick in the NFL, Tom may as well have been undrafted because the likelihood of a 6th rounder turning out a starting caliber career let alone a HOF one is likely the same chances FVV overcame, it’s a drive that will never end.
When FVV was signed by the Raptors after the 2016 NBA draft, the point guards selected ahead of him were Kris Dunn, Malcolm Brogdon, Tyler Ulis, Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, Wade Baldwin, Isaiah Whitehead, Kay Felder and Demetrius Jackson. Jamal Murray and Kris Dunn were no brainers, they were lottery picks. After that Malik Beasley, a 6’4 190LBS guard out of FSU with an NBA ready body and a smooth jumper? Sure, I can buy that. After that the list gets thin real quick. It makes sense, the NBA is a very copycat league, and the rule is if a college PG is short, not eye-poppingly athletic and played all 4 years in college then there’s GOTTA be something wrong with him, there just has to be because it fits their mould, it fits their perception of what “potential” is and what it isn’t and apparently FVV was not. It’s also lazy, why do the due diligence of looking at the players pedigree, his games against high level talent, his games in tournament play, his intangibles, that’s all too hard to explain to your CEO when its much easier to bust on a guy that’s 6’5” 200 LBS and say, “he had all the tools!”. Don’t forget, the Raptors had 2 picks in that draft as well, they took Jacob Poetl (part of Kawhi Leonard trade) and Pascal Siakam (2x all-NBA), you know what the Raptors didn’t do too bad, I blame the other 29 teams for not drafting him.
In his rookie season, “steady Freddie” averaged an uninspiring 3 PPG and only playing 37 games that season. In his sophomore year he took a big leap playing in 76 games (0 starts) averaging 9 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists per game and you could just tell he was figuring it out. He shot .414% on 3.4 attempts from 3 that year as well, it was all starting to click playing off of DeMar and Kyle. He could spot up and shoot, play high pick and roll and lead the fast break playing secondary or tertiary creator depending on who was on the floor with him. If you got over his stocky frame and just looked at his shear production you could tell this was a player that flat out produces. In his 6 seasons in the NBA, his MPG, FGA, 3PA, RPG, SPG & PPG have all increased every season topping out in career highs across the board this year and earning Fred his first all-star game selection.
With every great story there has to be some luck, and I think Fred got some good luck getting to play behind a player that’s in almost every way his clone, Kyle Lowry. Kyle Lowry similarly does not have the size of a prototypical NBA start guarding, he’s not going to dunk on you like Russ or fly by you like John Wall. He had to find ways outside of the obvious to succeed in the NBA, dogged defense, running a team well, being a leader and stepping up when it matters most. The charge has become synonymous with who Kyle Lowry is and it’s a perfect example of a player taking a tool that most players take for granted and using it to catapult themselves into the top ranks of their position. Every game Fred was able to sit and watch a master at work, a man who had to outthink the game. By no means did Fred need Kyle to succeed in the NBA but it was just the extra bit of luck that perhaps got him here faster.
All of this is to say Raptor fans should rest easy every night because in my opinion there’s 2 ways to win a championship in the NBA: Get yourself 3 top 15 players with one having to be in the top 5 OR get one top 5 players and surround him with a bunch of top 30-50 players and the latter is what the Raptors have in OG, Siakam, Trent Jr, FVV and now Scottie Barnes (who could be a top 15 player very soon), the Raptors have everything they need to win another NBA championship and anyone who knows basketball knows absolutely FVV can be your starting PG on a title team. He’s not going to be your #1, but he’s a damn great #3 guy on your team, like Brock Lesnar was a “Paul Heyman guy”, I’m a “Fred Van Vleet guy.”
